by Kenneth J. Theisen
A new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) which has concluded that Iran halted a military nuclear program in 2003 has apparently done nothing to dampen the Bush regime’s drive toward war with Iran. The NIE document represents the consensus of U.S. intelligence agencies. Despite the fact that the report undercuts the Bush administration’s argument that Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons justifies its militant approach to relations with Iran, President Bush is still taking a tough posture. The Bush Regime continues to pursue sanctions and Bush said the report would not prompt him to remove the option of pre-emptive military action against Iran.
At a news conference on November 4, 2007 President Bush stated, “Look, Iran was dangerous, Iran is dangerous and Iran will be dangerous if they have the knowledge necessary to make a nuclear weapon”So, I view this report as a warning signal that they had the program, they halted the program. And the reason why it’s a warning signal is that they could restart it.” Bush argued that Iran continues to produce enriched uranium that could be diverted to a weapons program. He emphasized that his views on Iran have not changed, “I think the NIE makes it clear that Iran needs to be taken seriously as a threat to peace. My opinion hasn’t changed. And I just explained that if you want to avoid a really problematic situation in the Middle East, now is the time to continue to work together. That’s our message to our allies, and it’s an important message for them to hear.”
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, echoed the president, “I continue to see Iran as a dangerous power in international politics. At this moment, it doesn’t appear to have an active weaponization program. That frankly is good news. But if it causes people to say, ‘Oh well then we don’t need to worry about what the Iranians are doing,’ I think we will have made a big mistake.”
Stephen Hadley, Bush’s national security adviser, was also on message when he stated, “On balance, the estimate is good news. On one hand, it confirms that we were right to be worried about Iran seeking to develop nuclear weapons. On the other hand, it tells us that we have made some progress in trying to ensure that that does not happen. But it also tells us that the risk of Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon remains a very serious problem.”
But despite the tough talk and actions of the Bush regime, the NIE will weaken international support for tougher sanctions against Iran. Russian President Vladimir Putin, has stated that there is no evidence that Iran is building a nuclear weapon and has challenged past U.S. claims as exaggerated. This report backs up his arguments, as well as those with similar views.
Mohammed ElBaradei, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, urged immediate negotiations,” saying the NIE report “should help to defuse the current crisis.” He went on to say, “Although Iran still needs to clarify some important aspects of its past and present nuclear activities, the agency has no concrete evidence of an ongoing nuclear weapons program or undeclared nuclear facilities in Iran.”
China’s United Nations ambassador, Wang Guangya, said the report made new U.N. sanctions less probable. “I think the council members will have to consider that, because I think we all start from the presumption that now things have changed.”
Even Republican Senator Chuck Hagel recently stated that the NIE removes, “if nothing else, the urgency that we have to attack Iran, or knock out facilities. I don’t think you can overstate the importance of this.” Hagel has advocated direct and unconditional talks with Iran. The NIE report even prompted seven Democratic presidential hopefuls at an Iowa debate to urge the administration to shift its focus to diplomacy with Iran
Iran on December 4, 2007 welcomed the report as a proof that its nuclear program is peaceful. Iran’s Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki addressed the Bush regime, “Our advice is that they correct their mistakes regarding Iran’s nuclear issue.” But given the statements coming from the regime, Iran will be waiting a long time for an apology.
The NIE report is a dramatic departure from past U.S. intelligence assessments of Iranian nuclear capabilities and intentions. But despite this new acknowledgement, the Bush regime is not wavering in its intent toward Iran. And even if the regime loses support internationally or domestically for it approach toward Iran, I think it is a mistake to think that the Bush administration will change course. Remember that when the regime attacked Iraq it was isolated in the international community. It had very few international allies but that did not stop the invasion of Iraq.
The reality is that the Bush regime has been using the excuse of possible nukes in the hands of Iran to justify its policies. Just because the excuse has less credibility does not mean that the regime will throw in the towel. Bush is concerned about Iranian influence in the Middle East and determined to remove Iran as an obstacle to control of the region. The recent U.S.-sponsored Mideast “peace” conference was clearly an attempt to isolate Iran by attempting to unite Arab allies of the U.S. Bush and his cronies still accuse Iran of supporting terrorism because it supports Hamas in Palestine and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Accusations of arms smuggling by Iranians into Iraq and Afghanistan are also still part of the Bush administration’s rhetoric, as are charges that Iran supports Shiite militias in Iraq. With the issuance of this report, I expect that the Bush regime will actually increase its rhetorical attacks against Iran in order to divert attention from the report.
The NIE report also gives the Bush regime some political ammo. While it states Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003 and that it appears that “Tehran had not restarted its nuclear weapons program,” the report also indicates that Iran continues to keep the option of restarting the program. The NIE suggests by ending the weapons program, Iran could continue trying to develop the capability to process uranium for peaceful use and still comply with its treaty obligations. The report states that achieving uranium enrichment capacity could aid a future weapons program. Bush, Rice, and Hadley have obviously latched on to this last possibility in their most recent statements to the media.
It is likely in the short run that the administration’s attempts to build support in the international community to further isolate Iran will be more difficult. In the U.S., more people will see the lies of the regime for what they are. But the Bush regime is intent on removing Iran as an obstacle to U.S. hegemony. Only a mass movement with the intent to drive the regime from power will serve as a real deterrent to another war launched by the regime.