October 8
UNICEF STRESSED NEED TO STOP CONTINUED VIOLENCE AND DISREGARD FOR CHILDREN’S SAFETY in Sudan, indicating killing of at least 13 children in airstrikes on N Darfur’s al-Kuma. The children were between ages 6 and 17. “These attacks on children are unacceptable. Children have no role to play in wars or civil conflict, but children are the ones…suffering the most as the conflict in Sudan grinds on,” Sheldon Yett, UNICEF. “Children should be safe everywhere, in their homes, neighbourhoods and on the streets”. UNICEF received further reports of civilians killed and injured in attacks in Melit, N Darfur. …Since the beginning of the conflict, 150 schools and hospitals have been attacked, health centres, water points and marketplaces have been damaged and destroyed. “Last year saw the highest number of grave violations against children verified in Sudan in more than a decade. As the conflict continues unabated, we fear this horrendous pattern will persist”. The Air Force targeted al-Kuma town market in N Darfur with explosive barrels and missiles killing 59 people, mostly women and children, said the Civil Society Organisations Group: “Thousands of
children and families are trapped in areas affected by violence, insecurity and lack of protection.” UNICEF reiterated calls on all parties to the conflict to abide by their obligations under international humanitarian law and ensure children are protected.
SAF LAUNCHED ARBITRARY AIRSTRIKE ON AL-HASAHEESA, AL GEZIRA, KILLING AND INJURING 100 CIVILIANS, including women and children. The civil society group condemned continuation of the SAF air shelling on states al-Gezira, Sinnar, al-Neel al-Abied (White Nile), W and N Darfur and N Kordofan that led to the death of hundreds of civilians. The massacres committed by SAF’s Air Force represent a full-fledged war crime, Emergency Lawyers said. …SAF leaders committing these crimes reflects they have no intent to protect civilians, a matter that requires urgent action by the international community.
US IMPOSED SANCTIONS ON BROTHER OF HEAD OF RSF, accusing him of leading the paramilitary group’s procurement of weapons and extending the civil war. “At a time when the US, UN, AU…are advocating for peace, key individuals on both sides including Algoney Hamdan Daglo Musa continue to procure weapons to facilitate attacks and atrocities against their own citizens,” Bradley Smith, Treasury’s Acting Undersecy. Algoney, hit with the latest sanctions on Sudanese actors, I younger brother of RSF commander Dagalo, known as Hemedti. Washington has so far resisted calls to sanction Hemedti directly over allegations that the RSF committed human rights violations. The Treasury said Algoney’s actions supplying the RSF contributed to the ongoing siege and humanitarian crisis in al-Fashir. The US last year targeted another of Hemedti’s brothers, Abdelrahim Dagalo, with sanctions. Algoney…has controlled front companies used for RSF procurement. Those include Tradive Gen Trading, already sanctioned by Washington based in the UAE. Reuters/The New Arab
GRASSROOTS HUMANITARIAN NETWORKS EMERGENCY RESPONSE ROOMS ENDORSED BY PEACE RESEARCH INST DIRECTOR ON ANNUAL LIST FOR NOBEL PEACE PRIZE NOMINEES for their critical role in providing lifesaving aid amidst one of the world’s most severe humanitarian crises. Urdal highlighted ERRs’ indispensable role in offering humanitarian assistance during a time of widespread displacement and insecurity. ERRs emerged in 2019 during pro democracy protests that deposed Al Bashir. “Operating in a decentralised manner, these groups deliver essential humanitarian assistance in a highly complex conflict environment, with limited access to communities, resources and infrastructure. Volunteers often operate in insecure areas, facing threats of harassment and violence.”
ERRs are unique in that they rely on community-driven efforts, rooted in the Sudanese tradition nafeer where communities come together to support one another in times of crisis. They have become crucial for areas where international aid is scarce due to ongoing violence. “…awarding this year’s Peace Prize to a deserving humanitarian
initiative such as the Emergency Response Rooms would highlight the critical importance of access to lifesaving aid in times of conflict”. Dabanga
AS LATEST CAMPAIGN BY SAF TO TAKE CONTROL OF KHARTOUM CONTINUES, PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN BELT CONTINUE TO LIVE UNDER BOMBARDMENT AND DISEASE, as prices soar and hospitals report closure, causing hunger and further insecurity. The Southern Belt includes El Salama, El Azhari, Edd Hussein, Mayo and Soba districts.* These neighbourhoods are under control of the RSF. They are suffering from repeated airstrikes by the SAF since it launched a major ground offensive on Khartoum. 40 people arrived at Bashair Teaching Hosp with blast injuries. Mohamed Kandasha, spokesperson for the Southern Belt Emergency Rm, told Radio Dabanga waves of displacement from El Ingaz continue… close to where RSF troops are stationed and exposed to aerial bombardment by army aircraft.
Violence has become a daily reality in Khartoum, where fighting has intensified, putting the lives of millions at risk, according to MSF. Oct 1, shelling occurred 2k from Bashair Hosp, where MSF operations continue. MSF had been informed that another hospital stopped working after being hit by an airstrike. The teams are reportedly preparing to receive more wounded at Bashair Hosp despite limited supplies following months of deliberate obstruction of aid by RSF and SAF. MSF announced that its medical activities in El Kalakla would be suspended from Sept 30 “until further notice. This extremely difficult decision to suspend activities at Shaheed Wada’allah Clinic comes after 3 incidents of armed robbery, putting the lives of staff and patients at risk. These attacks against healthcare are unacceptable.”
Kandasha described the situation as catastrophic. Cases of malaria, dengue fever and conjunctivitis are increasing in southern Khartoum neighbourhoods, especially among people already suffering from chronic diseases and anaemia. 72 people died after contracting dengue fever in the past week, including 8 in 1 day. In Sept, hospitals recorded a weekly death rate of 20 people. Southern Belt Emergency Rm reported 170 deaths Sept 21-27 following “rapid spread of dengue fever, malaria, typhoid and relapsing fever.” The Emergency Rm’s medical department recorded 1,450 dengue fever cases in Sept with 1,153 cases of malaria and relapsing fever, warning of significant increases in the price of medicines available. Ongoing disease outbreaks are pushing Sudan’s already fragile healthcare system to a breaking point and exacerbating weaknesses in the sanitation and hygiene infrastructure.
South Belt Emergency Rm reported an unprecedented rise in food prices. The price of a kilo of sugar rose from SDG 3,000 to 7,000. There is a severe shortage of flour. “The people have adapted to the current situation of continuous air strikes and bombing. The commission traders are asking for the transferral from the bankak application to cash is now 10%. They sometimes even delay payment. Others demand 15%,” accusing the merchants of greed and exploitation. “Some shop owners refuse payment through a bank application.” As most people have lost their jobs and sources of income, they have
become dependent on transfers from relatives abroad and soup kitchens/takaya in southern Khartoum. “Most takaya operate intermittently due to the lack of continuous support, except for Mayo and Edd Hussein, supported by the WFP.” *Southern Belt is the periphery of the capital inhabited by people earlier displaced by wars in Darfur, Kordofan and Blue Nile and So Sudanese refugees, and by impoverished farmers from various parts of the country who lost their lands to banks.
EMERGENCY LAWYERS CONDEMNED CONTINUED AERIAL BOMBARDMENT BY SAF on areas occupied by RSF in El Gezira, Sennar, White Nile State, N Kordofan and W and N Darfur, which killed hundreds of civilians in the last week, estimated to be over 500. The lawyers call the air raids on civilians “a fully fledged war crime” and consider “the insistence of military leaders” to continue airstrikes “a scandal for the international and regional communities.” DBA repeated its call on the international community “to quickly take the necessary measures to stop these serious violations and bring those responsible for them to justice.” …warplanes launched airstrikes on the Fur Mkt in Hasaheisa in El Gezira, killing and wounding 100 people, including children. Darfur Bar Assoc strongly condemned the airstrike: “The violations taking place amount to genocide.” Emergency Lawyer said…the Air Force “randomly bombed Hasaheisa.” Activists circulated video clips showing bodies of the victims, with sounds of screaming and crying. Sources in W Darfur told Radio Dabanga the Air Force launched airstrikes on Selea, capital of Jebel Moon. Mohamed Abakar: it was not possible to determine the number of victims and damages resulting from the bombing due to the complete disruption of communications networks and unavailability of Starlink satellite internet devices.
The Joint Force of Armed Struggle Movements, renamed Sudanese Joint Forces fighting alongside the army, deployed their forces in Kulbus and neighbouring villages in W Darfur. RSF reportedly regained control of Sirba, Abu Suruj and Bir Saliba, north of El Geneina, after Sudanese Joint Forces took control last week. 3 people were killed, 9 injured, and a large number of houses were burned in Abu Suruj…. markets were plundered. El Fasher witnessed violent battles between RSF and the Joint Forces. Abu Shouk Emergency Rm reported artillery fire inside the camp. El Fasher is last of the 5 Darfur state capitals not under RSF control. Residents fear that full RSF control of the city could ignite strife between Arab tribesmen supporting the RSF and the Zaghawa from which most fighters of the N Darfur rebel movements hail. The Emergency Rm announced the killing of 10 people…as a result of RSF artillery shelling…. 65 people were killed in airstrikes on El Koma Mkt, N Darfur. On the same day, warplanes bombed Melit killing 23 people. In N Kordofan, warplanes bombed Ham rat El Sheikh, killing 38 people.
October 4
BATTLE FOR KHARTOUM RAGING IN WAR-TORN SUDAN. New fighting rocked the capital late Sept as the military launched an operation aimed at taking control of parts of the city ruled by the RSF. AP footage shot in the immediate aftermath showed Sudanese soldiers in pickup trucks driving through the damaged roads of Bahri. According to local media reports, the army and allied forces are attempting to seize the Khartoum oil refinery in Al-Jaili, 70k north. Other strategic battlegrounds include Jebel Mayo in SE Sudan, as well as E-Fasher, capital of N Darfur. Fighting is expected to intensify as the rainy season draws to a close.
October 3
CHOLERA CASES SURGE PAST 19,000, DEATH TOLL 566. The outbreak began following widespread flooding. Stagnant water provides fertile breeding grounds for the disease, raising concerns of further spread. Emergency Ops Center reported 190 new cholera cases and 3 states. River Nile State has been particularly hard hit, reaching 4,561 infections and 101 deaths. 37 new cases were recorded, where 69 patients remain in isolation centres. The Health Min reported 773 cases of dengue fever across 11 localities in 4 states. 80 new dengue infections were recorded in Khartoum and Kassala states. The Min confirmed efforts to combat the cholera outbreak, including treatment at isolation centres and federal-level interventions. Sudan Tribune
October 2
2 MINUTE VIDEO CLIP CIRCULATED ON SOCIAL MEDIA SHOWING A GROUP OF ARMED MEN INSIDE A HOUSE IN KHARTOUM N/BAHRI, STANDING NEAR SEVERAL YOUNG MEN’S BODIES WEARING CIVILIAN CLOTHES AFTER THEY HAD KILLED THEM. One of the gunmen called them kuffaar/ infidels. Radio Dabanga has been unable to verify the location and time. While SAF did not issue a statement regarding the violent incidents, RSF accused the El Baraa bin Malik brigade, affiliated with the Islamic Movement and fighting alongside the army, of liquidating 70 young people volunteering in takaya/soup kitchens in Halfaya. The paramilitaries suspected the youth of cooperating with the RSF. Bahri Emergency Rm had not yet confirmed whether the victims were members of one of the emergency rms or volunteers serving the soup kitchens “The number of victims of these liquidations is large, but we cannot present accurate figures due to the difficulty of movement in the area.” Lawyer Moez Hadra told Radio Dabanga “these young takaya volunteers should have been honoured instead of being murdered in this hideous manner. The Islamists…are now waging war against the Sudanese people and targeting Resistance Committees and volunteers who provide humanitarian aid to the war victims.”
Sources told Radio Dabanga dozens of other people were also killed in the area. Social media posts quoted residents of Halfaya and surroundings who said 120 people were shot dead after the SAF and allied armed groups drove the RSF from the area.
Emergency Lawyers reported that Halfaya witnessed arbitrary detentions and extrajudicial killings by El Baraa bin Malik brigade and members of the army Sept 29. Some of the killings and detentions were done “in response to calls for incitement and hatred. All cases were the seed of cooperation with the RSF that have dominated the neighbourhood…since the outbreak of war on April 15. Committing these crimes and the execution of so-called death sentences (field trials) continue and has brought civilians and the military together and is greatly supported by calls for incitement despite the catastrophic circumstances the city is witnessing.” Civil Democratic Forces Alliance Tagadom described the massacre as a full-fledged war crime, and vowed “one day, justice will reach all those who committed and incited it”. National Umma Party reminded the SAF of their pledges to respect international humanitarian law….” and called on army command “to resolve such horrific crimes and investigate them urgently and transparently, bring the perpetrators to justice and commit to protecting civilians.” Dabanga
September 27
IN THINLY VEILED REFERENCES TO UAE, AL BURHAN ATTACKED REGIONAL PLAYERS BACKING THE RSF during an address to the Gen Assembly. Speaking as his army launched a major offensive to retake Khartoum, Burhan said RSF was “receiving political and logistical support at local and regional levels”….that without this support, which came from states that would like “to control our people’s riches through….money”, the war would have ended. Middle East Eye reported extensively on UAE’s patronage of the RSF. Sudan’s army-aligned government previously presented the UN with evidence of UAE support for the RSF, including the presence of Emirati forces on the ground in Sudan. The army recently turned to Russia and Iran for help fighting the RSF.
Eyewitnesses in Khartoum said the army was still advancing in the city and its planes were bombing the strategically vital al-Jili oil refinery. RSF siege of el-Fasher, capital of N Darfur, continues, with a million civilians trapped as the army engages in a desperate defence of the last city it holds in Darfur. Burhan denied the level of suffering in Sudan, referring to a “food gap” and insisting it “hadn’t reached the level of famine yet”. He piled blame for the country’s misery on the RSF, which had been engaging in “ethnic cleansing, forced displacement and genocide”. In April the Raoul Wallenberg Centre said there was “clear and compelling evidence” RSF was committing genocide against “non-Arab groups” in Darfur, the vast western region that serves as RSF’s powerbase. Burhan told the UN RSF fighters sold women and children in marketplaces. Multiple eyewitnesses and aid workers told MEE RSF fighters raped women throughout the war.
In NY the chance to make diplomatic headway appears to have been squandered. Biden…raised the issue of UAE arms supplies with bin Zayed when he met the Emirati
leader. Patrick Smith, Africa Confidential, told MEE reporters at Burhan’s press conference were baffled when he set out a raft of conditions to be met in order to restore peace, having first insisted “we are keen on stopping the war and restoring peace and security, without any preconditions”. Burhan said he would never sit down for talks with Hemeti “unless he pulls his forces out and implements what we agreed to”. Long accused of seeking to restore the power and influence of Sudan’s Islamic movement and its allies in the former administration of Bashir, Burhan claimed the army would “never accept a return to the previous regime, which was rejected by the Sudanese people.”
MARGINALISED ETHNIC GROUPS SUBJECT TO GENDER-BASED VIOLENCE as part of broader campaigns of persecution. Women who managed to escape into Chad shared harrowing experiences of being raped by militiamen, in some cases multiple times. Local activists say many are assaulted in front of family members. …crimes committed by warring factions include kidnapping, torture, looting and sectarian-based killings. In Sudan women and girls are deterred from reporting sexual assaults due to victim-blaming, fear of retaliation and the slim prospect of the state delivering justice. Cultural norms predating the war blame and shame victims instead of assailants. Survivors may face severe repercussions, including ostracisation and intimidation, adding to their distress and stopping many from seeking help. Systemic failings reinforce a culture of impunity and perpetuate sexual violence, with abusers rarely held accountable.
Strategic Initiative for Women in the Horn of Africa highlighted the stigma and harassment faced by mothers subjected to sexual violence and children born from rape. These mothers endure significant psychological trauma, which often adversely affects their children. Tragically, many of those pregnant from rape are themselves minors.… survivors and sometimes their families are shunned by the wider community. Consequently, relatives may pressure survivors to remain silent or disown them to avoid social rejection. This can have devastating repercussions for those cut off from financial and emotional support. In some cases, survivors are compelled to marry their attackers to restore “family honour,” opening them up to further abuse. Armed conflict incites child marriage, as it is seen as a survival strategy amidst worsening poverty and sexual violence, displacement and insecurity. Early marriage exposes girls to severe risks, including unwanted pregnancies and marital rape. Adolescents who aren’t physically ready to bear children are more likely to suffer complications such as miscarriage, haemorrhage, obstetric fistula and mortality. War heightens these dangers by significantly reducing access to contraception and pre- and postnatal medical care.
A SIHA investigation uncovered a rise in forced pregnancies and 7 related suicides, underscoring how the lack of psychological and medical support is having a devastating impact. Many healthcare facilities have been damaged, and those still functioning are often controlled by armed groups. In N Darfur, almost ¾ of victims…were unable to get medical assistance because of severe shortages in supplies due to hospitals being
plundered and delivery of aid prevented by fighting. Youth and women’s rights groups have established Emergency Response Rms. Staffed by dedicated networks of local volunteers, ERRs are playing a pivotal role in providing humanitarian responses. However, their efforts are hindered by the chaotic nature of the conflict, and volunteers face significant risks, including arbitrary arrest, beatings, rape and murder by warring parties. Nina Masore, Program Officer, Equality Now’s End Sexual Violence. The New Arab
PARAMILITARY ATTACK ON MARKET IN EL FASHER KILLED 18, after world leaders appealed for an end to the country’s wartime suffering. “We received last night at the hospital 18 dead,” some of them burned and others killed with severe shrapnel injuries, El-Fasher Teaching Hosp. The hospital is one of the last still receiving patients, where reports of a “full-scale assault” by RSF last weekend led Secy-Gen Guterres to call for an urgent ceasefire. A hallmark of the war, mostly been fought in densely populated areas, has been mass human rights violations including systematic sexual violence, summary executions and looting of humanitarian aid often by paramilitaries. UN Women report showed that as of Dec, 6.7m people were in need of services related to gender-based violence, but “this figure is estimated to be even higher today”. Home to 5.8m internally displaced women and girls, who were acutely vulnerable. As famine threatens displaced populations across the country, “women are eating least and last” Fears have mounted that intensified fighting in Darfur will herald a new wave of horrific violence by paramilitaries, particularly impacting women and girls, displaced communities and ethnic minorities. Al Arabiya
September 25
MOTHERS AND CHILDREN IN S DARFUR EXPERIENCING ONE OF THE WORST HEALTH EMERGENCIES IN THE WORLD, Doctors Without Borders. MSF said in its latest report 114 maternal deaths occurred between Jan and mid-Aug. Over 50% of maternal deaths happened in medical settings, with sepsis the most common cause of death. Jan-June, 48 newborns died from sepsis at 2 MSF-backed medical facilities. 30,000 children under age 2 were screened for malnutrition, including 33% acutely malnourished and 8.1% severely and acutely malnourished. “This is a crisis unlike any other I have seen in my career — multiple health emergencies happening simultaneously with almost no international response from the UN and others,” Dr. Gillian Burkhardt. “Newborn babies, pregnant women and new mothers are dying in shocking numbers. So many deaths are due to preventable conditions, as almost everything has broken down.” The situation was particularly dire for women at Nyala Teaching Hosp and Kas Rural Hosp where MSF reported 46 maternal deaths Jan-Aug: 78% of maternal deaths happened within the first 24 hours after admission. Most humanitarian organizations haven’t returned to Nyala, Sudan’s second largest city. AfricaNews
MILITARY OUTLOOK: WHAT TO EXPECT FROM DRY SEASON FIGHTING IN SUDAN. A 3-month period of seasonal rains is coming to an end, heralding the beginning of a potentially vicious new phase of the civil war. The rains turned parts of the countryside to mud and flooded seasonal rivers/wadis, hampering off-road movement. This resulted in a lull in combat since July, except in urban areas. As the earth dries, the fighting is set to pick up. Last year, the dry season (Oct-Dec) coincided with significant battles in Nyala, Zalingei, Balila, Jebel Aulia, El Geneina and Wad Madani—all resulting in victories for RSF. Having dominated W Darfur for many years, they set their sights on national rule. RSF controls a territory about the size of Sweden or Iraq, not counting vast desert regions through which they are able to move freely. Their control stretches from the Chad border to Khartoum and the Ethiopian border. Sudan’s military retreated to Pt Sudan, having lost control over most of the capital. Convinced new weapons and recruits eventually will turn the tide, they boycotted ceasefire talks. During the coming dry season, fighting will intensify along existing frontlines, while potentially spreading to new areas as one or both sides launch new offensives. We anticipate further mass displacement of 200,000-2m civilians.
RSF maintain the initiative following the invasion of Sennar State and have yet to lose a major battle to SAF, though they suffered substantial losses in Omdurman and El Fasher. An RSF breakthrough into the urban core could trigger a collapse of SAF defenses. Alternative scenarios include prolonged urban combat, prolonged siege, or SAF counter offensive. RSF takeover of Sennar extended the Gedaref Front by 100k. Gedaref is an agricultural state with wide open plans, crisscrossed by rivers and irrigation canals. This terrain favors the RSF.
RSF dominates the capital while SAF controls just 2 small enclaves. Fighting in dense urban areas is static and mostly stalemated. We foresee 2 possible scenarios….The first a concerted effort by RSF to overrun remaining SAF resistance. This would give them full control of the capital, which they might perceive as strategically and politically beneficial. The more likely scenario is continuing stalemate. Low-level fighting will continue in small areas of Khartoum, occasional skirmishes, sniping, shelling, airstrikes and drone attacks. The army are substantially stronger in Omdurman, capturing key RSF areas. There is a greater likelihood of intense fighting in Omdurman and Ombada, which would affect large numbers of civilians.
There is a high risk of escalation along the border between Khartoum State and R Nile State. R Nile is the home state of al-Bashir and al-Burhan and stronghold of the regime. There is a low probability of a full-scale offensive by either party but medium to high probability of border clashes. In the longer term, there is a higher risk of large-scale operations.
Fighting in El Fasher continued throughout the rainy season, causing hundreds of civilian deaths….Combined with the effects of famine and daily military casualties made El Fasher the deadliest place in Sudan. It is the only city in Darfur still under SAF control, and RSF has been relentless, despite a UN Sec Council resolution demanding de-escalation. There is a high probability fighting will continue in El Fasher, and extend to other parts of N Darfur. SAF has indiscriminately bombed RSF-controlled cities, and could continue despite minimal if any military gain.
RSF move freely throughout N Kordofan….will seek to contain the SAF while maintaining a loose siege. W Kordofan is one of the few states where de-escalation is possible. The last dry season witnessed significant fighting but since then RSF consolidated control and may seek to avoid confrontations due to local political considerations. Nuba Mtns of S Kordofan are mostly controlled by SPLM-N which is neutral. Recent talks between the military and SPLM-N, and friendly relations between Sudan and So Sudan (long-time ally of SPLM-N), limit escalation. A de facto truce may prevail throughout the region. Kadugli, the strongest SAF garrison, is a potential flashpoint, but only if relations deteriorate between SAF and SPLM-N.
RSF control 2,500 sq k in White Nile, but none of the major cities. The rest is firmly under SAF control but particularly vulnerable to assault. White Nile shares a border of 300k with RSF-controlled N Kordofan, as well as a border with RSF-controlled parts of Khartoum State. The army typically fights from static defensive positions, will be at considerable disadvantage if RSF attack White Nile. An attack by RSF could send…hundreds of thousands of people fleeing south. There is a medium to high probability of fighting in White Nile. Top RSF field commander boasted the paramilitary would soon take over the state.
Occasional fighting has taken place…between Sennar State and Blue Nile State. This area typically enjoys more rainfall than the rest of Sudan, so the ground may not dry until the end of Nov, limiting fighting for the time being. Damazin, the capital, is political power base of Malik Agar, dep chairman of Sovereignty Council and former rebel leader, whose SPLA-N troops are now integrated with SAF. The state is populous and seemingly well defended, and the alliance limits a RSF takeover though this won’t necessarily stop them from trying. Local militias are active in some rural areas, as well as SPLM al-Hilu. These dynamics reduce the likelihood of a full RSF takeover. Blue Nile State contains the Roseires Dam, crucial in regulating water flow to Egypt. Any attack would amplify concerns of Sudan’s neighbors, particularly Egypt, but also Ethiopia and So Sudan, due to the risk of major refugee flows and conflict spillover.
As the war progresses, we anticipate RSF will use their mobility advantage to strike farther afield, widening the scope of the war into previously unaffected areas. RSF’s successful invasions of Sennar and Jazira could lead them to believe other rear areas are equally vulnerable. An attack into Northern State is feasible. RSF carried out a long range raid from Khartoum to Merowe, traveling 500k across the desert. They destroyed fighter jets at Merowe Airport and captured a contingent of Egyptian troops, before withdrawing.
Equally, a raid into western Kassala State is possible, though not necessarily likely. Even Red Sea State could be vulnerable. Such attacks would not necessarily result in permanent control by RSF, but would fulfill a larger strategic objective, undermining the legitimacy and confidence of the government in Pt Sudan and shifting the war away from RSF homeland into eastern regions. Without a ceasefire and political process for resolving the conflict, fighting could continue for a long time. The coming dry season fighting will reveal if the trend of RSF victories continues, or if SAF can begin to turn the tide. Sudan War Monitor
SUDANESE RENOWNED POET MOHAMED AL-MEKKI IBRAHIM NAMED BY THE WORLD UNION OF POETS AS SUDAN’S POET OF THE YEAR. Born in 1939, al-Mekki is an iconic figure in the Sudanese cultural scene as a poet, writer, critic,
translator, political analyst and activist. His publications include 4 collections in poetry, several books and hundreds of essays.
September 24
PRO-DEMOCRACY COALITION TAQADDOM APPEALED TO INTERPOL TO REJECT GOVERNMENT REQUEST TO ISSUE A RED NOTICE FOR ARREST OF SEVERAL LEADERS, INCLUDING FORMER PM HAMDOK. Taqaddom argues that the charges are politically motivated and represent an abuse of the justice system by remnants of the ousted regime of al-Bashir. Sudan’s AG requested Red Notices for 16 individuals it accuses of supporting the RSF. The group argues that the accusations which include undermining constitutional order, genocide and incitement against the state, are “fabricated and false” and intended to silence those calling for a peaceful resolution. “These accusations made by the Public Prosecutor’s Office are not based on anything related to the law, and they are nothing but a miserable attempt to silence civilian voices working to bring peace.” A Red Notice is a request to law enforcement agencies worldwide to locate and provisionally arrest a person pending extradition. Taqaddom leaders have consistently called for a cease-fire and negotiations to end the conflict. The coalition contends that elements of the former regime, entrenched in some judicial institutions, are using the legal system to settle scores and discredit civilian opposition. Sudan Tribune
N DARFUR, 2 YOUNG GIRLS SEXUALLY ASSAULTED BY ARMED GROUP WHILE TRAVELLING BETWEEN KADARIK AND TABIT. The assailants reportedly killed a resident who attempted to rescue the girls. A resident of Tabit told Radio Dabanga an “armed group on camels and motorcycles” intercepted the girls, aged 14 and 17, and proceeded to sexually assault them. “We receive news reports night and day,” head of Combating Violence Against Women Unit of Min of Social Affairs. “Most of the victims of sexual assaults are women and girls aged 12-17.”
September 23
WHAT FUTURE AWAITED THE SUDANESE PEOPLE AS CIVIL WAR RAGES, PUSHING ITS PEOPLE EVER FURTHER AFIELD TO UGANDA AND EUROPE’S MARITIME BORDERS. …10m people have been chased from their homes, 2m fled Sudan, Filippo Grandi told AFP. “What’s the future for a country like Sudan, devastated by war?” Grandi’s role in leading UNHCR is one of the most important in the UN due to the ever-growing number of refugees worldwide. The agency won the Nobel Peace Prize twice. “We have seen 100,000 Sudanese arrive in Libya. We know that, given the active presence of trafficking networks and proximity with Europe, many may now try…to take boats to Italy and European countries. We have been warning the Europeans,” insisting that humanitarian aid was inadequate, and Sudanese people would continue to leave and reach more countries. “This crisis is really beginning to impact the whole region in very, very risky ways.” Chad, So Sudan, Ethiopia and CAR are home to tens of thousands of
refugees, while Egypt, where many Sudanese migrants were already living, is home to millions. “This most grave crisis, a crisis of human rights, a crisis of humanitarian needs, passes largely unobserved in our international community. Every new crisis chases the other crisis away”.
But even before Israel’s deadly war on Gaza, the war in Sudan had been marginalised despite its massive impact, condemning the “deficit of interest for crises in Africa,” like Dem Rep of Congo and the Sahel, as “frightening and shocking.” Grandi questioned the outlook for Sudan even if peace was achieved, warning that the Sudanese middle class, which “held the country together, had been completely destroyed. They know that it’s over. They’ve lost their jobs, their homes have been destroyed. Many times relatives have been killed. It’s atrocious.” The New Arab
September 22
LOCAL AUTHORITIES DO NOT HAVE A COUNT OF DEATHS AND INJURIES FROM RSF SHELLING ON OMDURMAN SINCE THE WAR BEGAN. …the frequency of shelling recently increased, with casualties increasing, including deaths, injuries and destruction of homes and public facilities. RSF shelling…targeted densely populated civilian neighbourhoods, leaving children and women at risk of death or loss of limbs. Neighborhoods of Omdurman are sheltering residents of Khartoum, Bahri and Um Bidda….Residents are resisting fear and forced to survive the war and declining labor market, as leaving for safe states or outside Sudan is (not) an option for many.
Adel Khalafallah, Arab Socialist Baath Party and former member of the Economic Committee of FFC, said the war deliberately destroyed industrial and agricultural
production bases and institutions, companies, workshops and stores, in addition to looting and vandalism that affected private and public property, markets, banks and service facilities for education, health, electricity and water. …residents of Karary found themselves without sources of income and the dominance of commercial activity…and associated chains of services and intermediary works such as transportation, storage, distribution and display in front of shops and on the sides of safer roads. …This resulted in the growth of markets…attracting trade workers and entry of other professions into trade after losing their jobs and salaries. Khalafallah, trading in building materials, points to the steady increase in gold buying and selling signs, where 30 shops and companies can be counted on El Wadi St. …these areas are where a large segment of middlemen grew up in search of livelihood to cope with the large imbalance between income and price of goods and services, while a large sector depends on remittances of relatives from outside the country.
Khalafallah points to the booming real estate sector, car trade and transportation, noting most of its practitioners are from the military and security sector. But in general, markets are suffering from a recession manifested by growing supply as demand contracts including food markets, erosion of purchasing power due to the fall of the pound against $US and decline in remittances abroad. He warns that unless the war stops, the economic and social deterioration will continue and its repercussions on people’s lives, health, education and businesses. He points to another challenge in the behavior of localities collecting and chasing vendors, who lost their markets and shops or practiced alternative professions with the same methods and tools before the destruction, in addition to revenue institutions such as taxes, zakat, civil defense, Min of Health and standards, which impose fees not commensurate with the reality of traders and without corresponding services. The old neighbourhoods of Omdurman are witnessing a slow return of residents. FH told Sudan Tribune she has been displaced several times, to Gezira State, then to Faki Hashim, where she crossed the Nile with her family to Omdurman, where they live in a family-friend’s house in Wad El Banna. FH complains of the large number of mosquitoes and disease vectors that have caused outbreaks of unknown fevers: “We live with the sounds of gunfire and movement restrictions in the neighborhood, where movement is still limited and stops shortly after sunset.” Sudan Media Forum/Sudan Tribune
September 21
COMMITTEE TO PROTECT JOURNALISTS CONCERNS OVER USE BY THE RSF OF STATE-OWNED MEDIA FACILITIES IN OMDURMAN AS DETENTION CENTERS. Middle East and N Africa program coordinator Sherif Mansour: “RSF’s use of Sudan’s state television hqs as detention facilities is extremely shocking and is a clear indication of the deteriorating press freedom in the country amid a deadly war.” Sudanese Journalists Syndicate…warned that the RSF converted premises occupied by Sudan Broadcasting Corp. into detention facilities and had been selling its equipment in
local markets. …numerous journalists in the country lost their lives, been shot, harassed and detained while reporting on the fighting. Arab News
UAE HIDES WEAPONS BEHIND AID TO FUEL CONFLICT. Human Rights Watch found evidence of Emirati-supplied weaponry on the battlefield, including Serbian-made missiles fired from an unidentified drone initially delivered to the UAE. UAE is escalating a clandestine operation under the guise of the Red Crescent to funnel money, weapons and powerful drones to combatants raging throughout the nation, according to authorities, internal diplomatic cables and satellite pictures obtained by NYT. The drones are flying from where UAE claims to be organizing a humanitarian mission for the Sudanese people as part of its “urgent priority” to save innocent lives and prevent hunger. The Emirates is playing the greatest and most crucial role in Sudan’s conflict, openly promising to alleviate suffering while secretly inflaming it. A NYT investigation was corroborated by UN inspectors in Jan, who highlighted credible evidence that the Emirates was violating a 2-decade UN arms ban. An airstrip in Chad has been upgraded into a military-style airfield launching a powerful Chinese-made drone, the Wing Loong. A Wing Loong ground control station lies…750 yards from an Emirati-run hospital that treated wounded RSF forces. The drones are providing surveillance and identifying targets. Experts believe that after taking flight from the facility, the drones may be remotely flown from Emirati land. They were recently seen patrolling over besieged El Fasher where residents are hungry and surrounded by the RSF.
2 American officials…divulged that when Kamala Harris confronted Sheikh bin Zayed, the country’s leader said he owed the paramilitary group’s head, Hamdan, for deploying forces to fight alongside the Emirates in the war on Yemen. 1 American official told the
NYT the Gulf state “can’t lie to us anymore, because they know that we know.” NYT notes the Emirates’ actions appear to be part of a larger expansion into Africa….It unveiled $45b in investments throughout the continent last year, and in 2021 reversed the course of Ethiopia’s civil war by sending armed drones to the PM…assisting him to victory. Now it looks to be attempting to replicate the accomplishment in Sudan with RSF.
UAE claimed to be establishing a field hospital for Sudanese refugees at Amdjarass Airport in Chad. However, it was soon revealed the facility was actually treating RSF fighters, with cargo planes delivering weapons smuggled into Sudan.
120,000 Sudanese refugees.
Human Rights Watch found evidence of Emirati-supplied weaponry on the battlefield, including Serbian-made missiles fired from an unidentified drone initially delivered to UAE. “It’s very clear UAE is sending money, …weapons,” said former Chad PM Masra. Despite objections from Western authorities, Masra advised Chad’s Pres Déby that allowing UAE to transport weapons through the country was a “huge mistake”.
Fed of the Red Cross and Red Crescent is gravely worried about Emirati activity in Chad, having learned through press reports that the Emirates Red Crescent erected a hospital in Amdjarass. Tommaso Della Longa, Red Cross, stated the Emirati organization failed to notify the international federation. Emiratis marketed their efforts by displaying staff treating patients wearing the Red Crescent insignia. The Red Cross dispatched fact-finding teams to Chad but received few responses. Their representatives were kept away from the Emirati hospital. Following Macklemore’s cancelation of a Dubai gig due to Emirates’ activities in Sudan, US Amb Perriello urged a boycott. Some
US officials believed Perriello had gone too far, emphasizing the challenges of attacking the Emirates, a crucial partner of the US in numerous global issues. Al Mayadeen/NYT
UN ISSUED STARK WARNING ABOUT WORSENING HUMANITARIAN SITUATION, WITH MILLIONS FACING HUNGER, DISPLACEMENT AND DISEASE OUTBREAKS. “We are witnessing a perfect storm for the catastrophic loss of lives,” UN Spokesman Dujarric. UN humanitarian agencies are working tirelessly to provide aid, but a lack of funding severely hampers their efforts. The 2024 appeal for Sudan is less than ½ funded, with just $1.3b of the $2.7b needed received. WFP aims to reach 8.4 million people with food aid by the end of the year, while UNICEF is providing life-saving nutrition supplies to treat severely malnourished children. UNHCR is working to provide protection and assistance to those fleeing to neighbouring countries, but underfunding, flooding and insecurity hamper efforts. Despite challenges, aid reaches those in need, with 113 trucks crossing into Sudan from Chad since the Adré border crossing reopened. Sudan Tribune
September 20
DESPITE COMMITMENTS BY EL BURHAN AND PRES KIIR TO RESUME TRANSPORT OF SO SUDAN’S OIL, THE PRESENCE OF RSF…STALLED PROGRESS. Burhan and Kiir agreed to form a joint committee between the oil ministries to “eliminate obstacles and devise an operational plan to restart the flow of So Sudan’s crude oil”. Former Undersecy Min of Energy Suleiman stressed that the agreement’s success hinges on resolving the conflict: “Without a ceasefire…, it remains unlikely oil transport can safely resume.” Many key oil facilities remain under RSF control, making security a major concern.
The transport of So Sudan’s crude oil through Sudan has been halted since Feb, leading to major losses for both countries. The halt has primarily been attributed to technical issues caused by a shortage of diesel required to heat So Sudan’s waxy crude oil at key pumping stations. “Without sufficient heating, the crude oil solidified inside the pipeline, leading to blockages and a rupture between nations.” The crude oil is pumped from So Sudan to Red Sea State via 6 stations, “several now compromised by the RSF”. The suspension of oil flow has had severe economic repercussions. So Sudan lost significant revenue since the pipeline shut down, missing $100m in monthly earnings. “Sudan, which receives transit fees,…is also suffering financially with losses at $24/barrel for 150,000 barrels of oil transported daily.” Experts warn continued disruptions could lead to irreparable damage to the pipeline, valued at $2.3b. “If the crude oil remains frozen in the system for an extended period, the entire line could be destroyed, severely impacting both economies”. Suleiman emphasised that while the technical infrastructure is ready to resume pumping, only a political resolution between warring parties can ensure the safe flow of oil. Dabanga
September 19
SECURITY COUNCIL DISCUSSED CURRENT HUMANITARIAN CRISIS. Asst Secy-Gen for Africa Pobee: “The current wave of fighting marks the latest chapter of violence in El Fasher and occurs amidst a months-long siege and attack on the city at the hands of the RSF.” This has caused appalling levels of suffering for the civilian population, including famine conditions in Zamzam Camp.” The conflict turned Khartoum and other urban areas into battlefields, wrecking civilian infrastructure and an already battered health care system. Without the basics, many hospitals and medical facilities closed their doors. The country, which has gone through the shocks of civil war and climate change is in need of humanitarian aid with 9m people, 73% of the country’s population, in need of humanitarian assistance during 2024,… AfricaNews
SUDAN’S INFLATION RATE SURGED TO 218.18% UP FROM 193.94% IN JULY, Central Bur of Statistics reported, exacerbating the economic crisis facing the conflict ridden nation. The bureau attributed the persistent price rises primarily to continued depreciation of the Sudanese pound against foreign currencies. Sudan, reliant on imports for most essential goods like wheat and fuel, has seen its currency plummet amid ongoing conflict and political instability. Urban areas experienced an inflation rate of 189.38%, while rural areas were hit even harder, with 237.70%. The soaring inflation has deepened the economic hardship for citizens, many of whom have lost their
livelihoods due to the conflict. The rising cost of basic necessities has made it increasingly difficult for people to afford food, medicine and other essential goods. Sudan Tribune
September 17
AICHA EL BASRI, MOROCCAN JOURNALIST, ARAB CENTER FOR RESEARCH & POLICY STUDIES AND FORMER SPOKESWOMAN FOR THE AU AND UN MISSION IN DARFUR, EXPRESSED CONCERNS ABOUT ONGOING CRISIS…. The core issue extends beyond halting violence, with the real challenge being the establishment of a functional state, a problem many Arab nations are grappling with. “The problem in Sudan, as in the rest of the Arab world, is the failure of post independence nations to build a national state. There is no state based on citizenship, that respects the multiplicity of ethnicities, religions and cultures. A state based on sovereignty of the rule of law and civil governance is the project facing many countries including Sudan, Libya, Yemen, Syria and Iraq. The result has been a failure to construct a modern national state.”
The UN fact-finding mission…recommended deploying an independent peacekeeping force to protect civilians, a suggestion el Basri criticised as unrealistic: “The Sudanese government has never been accepting of an international force, and it received the UN
AU Mission in Darfur under immense pressure.” The Sudanese government’s stance mirrors this resistance, pointing to the expulsion of UNITAMS. El Basri highlighted the limitations of peacekeeping forces: a 2014 internal UN report that revealed peacekeepers failed to act in 80% of cases involving civilian attacks. …current UN leadership favours political missions over military ones, a shift back to traditional peacekeeping principles, which only deploy forces after a peace agreement has been reached. El Basri concluded that deploying peacekeepers in Sudan is implausible. “The army rejects hosting these forces, making their deployment impossible.” El Basri addressed the recommendation to extend the arms embargo in Darfur, calling it “idealistic” and that it has been historically ineffective. She pointed to repeated violations by Sec Council members Russia and China, both supplying weapons to parties in the conflict.
The report urged Sudanese authorities to cooperate with the ICC in extraditing individuals accused of war crimes. El Basri dismissed this as unrealistic, given that key military figures, including El Burhan, would be unlikely to surrender their colleagues or themselves to international justice. “It’s not serious. The Sudanese authorities won’t cooperate under these circumstances, and the idea of handing over individuals like El Burhan, who once defended Al Bashir, is inconceivable. The state cannot provide basic services, security or even daily necessities. The fact-finding mission’s recommendations seem detached from the reality on the ground.” The collapse of state institutions, including the judiciary, raises doubts about the country’s ability to implement justice or restore order. El Basri called for the international community to refocus its efforts. “The
priority should be on pressuring all parties to agree on state-building. Without this, Sudan will continue to disintegrate.” Dabanga
September 16
10,000 CHOLERA CASES REPORTED. The outbreak has been fueled this year by the floods besides the already deteriorated health situation created by fighting between the army and RSF. The Min of Health launched an immunisation campaign against cholera in Kassala and Wad Alhiloay. The campaign targets 400,000 people, will continue to 21 Sept. Al Taghyeer
September 15
UNPRECEDENTED AND ESCALATING COMBAT IN N DARFUR CAPITAL. Darfur has seen some of the war’s worst atrocities. “Neighbourhoods are completely deserted and all you can hear are explosions and missiles,” Ibrahim Ishaq, 52, “The central market area has become unliveable because of the intensity of the explosions.” Yale School of Pub Health’s Humanitarian Research Lab reported… “unprecedented large-scale combat operations” in Al-Fashir within the previous 10 days. …a major multi-directional RSF attack from northern, eastern and southern directions.” Using satellite imagery and other data, Yale researchers found munition impacts “likely related to high-tempo aerial bombardment” from the regular army, but said other structural damage resulted from RSF bombardment and combat activity by both sides. Whatever the battle’s ultimate outcome, current levels of fighting “are likely to effectively reduce what is left of Al-Fashir to rubble.” The New Arab
WHY ISN’T SUDAN IN THE NEWS? The crisis…deserves the intense coverage that Israel/Gaza and Ukraine have received, especially considering the scale of human suffering eclipses both of those conflicts…combined. This rarely gets coverage for multiple reasons: The army and RSF destroyed or cut cell networks and internet access in the country, making it harder to get news out into the world; the global diplomatic, humanitarian and peacekeeping presence has declined precipitously in previous years. There are few international eyes and ears on the ground who have the ability to get information to major news outlets abroad; Western news agencies —American ones especially— have largely looked away following embassy evacuations in the early days of the war. Other international crises are treated as being more important for complex reasons, including how they affect US politics, what drives clicks and revenue, the social media zeitgeist, and a general lack of interest in Africa. Most world leaders barely noticed the catastrophe unfolding in Sudan. The few diplomatic efforts to secure a ceasefire failed. International aid efforts are only 41% funded for all of 2024, and it is now well over halfway through the year. This means acute hunger is being felt in the refugee camps outside of Sudan too, where it is much easier to get aid in, simply because there is not enough attention. OperationBrokenSilence
September 9
WARRING PARTIES ACQUIRING SUPPLIES OF MODERN FOREIGN MADE WEAPONS AND MILITARY EQUIPMENT, according to a report by Human Rights
Watch. …analysed 49 photos and videos filmed by fighters and posted on social media, showing weapons used during the conflict. The arms…include armed drones, drone jammers, anti-tank guided missiles, truck-mounted multi-barrel rocket launchers and mortar munitions. …the weapons were produced by companies registered in China, Iran, Russia, Serbia and UAE. Middle East Eye