This is unconscionable and must not be allowed to happen again. Sudan’s military led by al Burhan must make no mistake about it. The world is watching and will not tolerate further bloodshed. They must order effective & independent investigations into killings and ensure that anyone suspected of responsibility for arbitrary or abusive force is prosecuted in fair trials. They must direct forces to desist from such force at any future protests. Bleak economic conditions, mass unemployment, high prices for basic goods were among root causes of the revolution that helped topple al Bashir. Hamdok’s government voiced a commitment to reversing these trends, though the economy worsened in 2020. Since independence, Sudan has been plagued by internal strife and political instability. Secession of So Sudan delivered multiple shocks to the economy following the loss of valuable oil revenues, years of US sanctions, economic crisis, shortages of basic commodities.
Amnesty Intl worried about the safety of civilians in Al Jazira, as conflict moves closer to Sudan’s breadbasket. The longer the fighting continues, the more devastating its impact. Some places have run out of food. Hundreds of thousands of children are severely malnourished and at imminent risk of death if left untreated. There are concerns vector-borne diseases are spreading, posing a lethal risk, especially to those already weakened by malnutrition. Cases of measles, malaria, whooping cough, dengue fever and acute watery diarrhoea are reported across the country. Most people have no access to medical treatment. The war decimated the health care sector, with most hospitals out of service. Millions of people have been displaced inside Sudan. 1 million others fled across its borders. As more refugees arrive in neighbouring countries, host communities are struggling. Sudan could tip the region into a humanitarian catastrophe. A long conflict will almost certainly lead to a lost generation of children as millions miss out on education, endure trauma and bear physical and psychological scars of war. Sudan Tribune
Many regional and global actors have vested stakes in the outcome of this crisis. Gulf heavyweights Saudi Arabia and UAE play important roles as external actors. Both seek economic and strategic goals in Sudan. Riyadh and Abu Dhabi coordinated on many regional and global files. But they are also rivals with a highly competitive relationship, whereby Saudi and UAE agendas, tactics and interests clashed. Probably the most visible has been Yemen, where Riyadh supported a unified Yemeni nation-state while Abu Dhabi sponsored the separatist group.
In economics, commerce and business, competition plays out while Riyadh and Abu Dhabi feud within OPEC. The rivalry is partly personal between UAE Pres bin Zayed and Saudi Prince bin Salman, each vying for leadership of the Middle East and beyond. In the aftermath of al-Bashir’s ouster, Saudi Arabia and UAE gained significant clout in Khartoum at Turkey and Qatar’s expense. Sudan fits into Saudi-Emirati competition for 3 reasons, Dr Eleonora Ardemagni, Italian Inst for Intl Political Studies: the economic layer driving investments in agricultural lands, mining and infrastructure; the diplomatic which monarchies aim to build leverage supporting negotiations and humanitarian diplomacy; geostrategic alignment with rival factions long before conflict erupted.
Having sent RSF fighters to Yemen and supportive of Gen Haftar in Libya, Hemedti became UAE’s main man in Sudan. The extent which Hemedti obtained power is largely attributable to Abu Dhabi. UAE backed Hemedti while collaborating with Wagner Group… .Hemedti acted as custodian of Emirati interests, guarding gold mines controlled by Wagner; gold is shipped to UAE en route to Russia, wrote Dr Talal Mohammad. The relationship between UAE, RSF and Russia via Wagner was cemented by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when Moscow became more dependent on gold to mitigate sanctions.
Saudi Arabia played somewhat of a balancing role to position as peacemaker not firmly behind al-Burhan or Hemedti. Saudi Arabia hosted SAF-RSF talks which constituted the first time both sides met. As the Emiratis are close to RSF, the only way for Saudis is playing the balancer role amid warring factions… .a way to strengthen Saudi leadership in the Arab League, and improve the relationship with the US through regional crisis management. If violence continues ravaging Sudan, tensions between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi could heat up.
A key factor is Egypt’s approach. Firmly supportive of al-Burhan and SAF while staunchly opposed to Hemedti, Cairo could launch an overt, extremely risky military campaign. The objectives would be to eliminate a threat by RSF while attempting to restore stability in Sudan. Although Egyptian military intervention would probably favour Riyadh, it could leave Saudi leadership facing challenges as the kingdom seeks to act as a leader which unites Arab League behind Saudi efforts…,depending on how events unfold, the Saudis may come to view the Emiratis as a thorn in their side as Riyadh attempts to restore peace. The New Arab