by Kenneth J. Theisen (February 21, 2008)
The February 18th Pakistani parliamentary elections were a major defeat for President Pervez Musharraf, the Bush regime’s man in Islamabad. So far, the two primary opposition parties won a total of at least 153 of the 268 contested seats, according to the Pakistani Election Commission. The pro-Musharraf party, Pakistan Muslim League-Q, won only 38 seats. Chairman Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, stated, “We accept the election results, and will sit on opposition benches. We are accepting the results with grace and open heart.” Most of the leaders of the party lost their seats in the new parliament.
It is unlikely that Musharraf is accepting the results with an open heart and the Bush regime is undoubtedly trying to determine its next move in Pakistan. It has given Musharraf virtually unqualified backing since 9/11. In this period it has also provided Musharraf’s regime with over $10 billion in “aid” (devoted to building up Pakistan’s military and paying off debt to Western financial institutions and countries). The Bush Regime has invested heavily in Musharraf as a key figure in its drive to control and dominate Central Asia. But U.S. interests in Pakistan go beyond the fate of any particular leader. How events will unfold in the coming period is subject to many intense and often conflicting forces and interests, but one certainty is that tightening a grip on Pakistan is a key component of the aims of the Bush Regime and the entire power structure of the U.S. The situation remains extremely volatile.
Pressure to Resign
Nawaz Sharif, Pakistan Muslim League-N leader, rubbed salt into Musharraf’s wounds after the results of the election became apparent. (His party has won 66 seats in the new parliament.) The former prime minister, who was deposed by Musharraf, reminded the president of statements made last year when Musharraf stated he would step down only if he lost the Pakistani people’s support. Do not expect a resignation any time soon though, although there will be additional pressure put on Musharraf to resign. He may even face pressure from some of his most ardent supporters who now face possible political ruin because of their support of him. They may decide to cut a deal with the opposition in order to salvage their power.
Until now the Pakistani army was the key factor in Musharraf’s grip on power. Musharraf, while under pressure, resigned as Army Chief late last year. This was a key demand of the opposition and even President Bush asked that he “remove his uniform.” Bush made this demand in order to derail opposition to Musharraf, not to lessen his power. But this may have backfired. The new army chief, General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, directed the military to stay out of the election campaign and not to interfere with the elections on Election Day. While in many parts of the country the army still took an active part in the campaigning, for the most part the military obeyed Kayani’s order.
Biden Courts the Opposition
Kayani is now being courted by at least one prominent Democratic leader, Sen. Joseph Biden, who chairs the Senate Foreign Relations 
Committee. Biden met with Kayani on the day after the election. Biden also met with Musharraf on the same day. On Sunday Biden arrived in Pakistan to observe the elections. At that time he said, “I don’t buy into the argument that Musharraf is the only one. We have to have more than just a Musharraf policy.” After the election he said, “This is an opportunity for us to move from a policy that has been focused on a personality to one based on an entire people.” Both these statements are obvious slaps at the Bush regime policy of supporting Musharraf.
John McCain, the likely Republican nominee for president, also weighed in on the Pakistani election results. He stated, “The results in Pakistan, although not unexpected, certainly are going to present a challenge for us to deal with a new government in Pakistan. I believe that whoever runs the country, we have a common interest in defeating the Taliban and having good relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan.” But he also supported Musharraf by saying, “I think he’s a legitimately elected president, and we”ll see what the dynamic of the new parliament is.”
The Pakistan People’s Party appears to have won 87 seats in the new parliament. This party is now run by Asif Ali Zardari, the husband of the assassinated ex-prime minister Benazir Bhutto. He told the media that he will sit down with Sharif and other members of the opposition to Musharraf “to form a government of national unity.” In forming the government he stated, “we are not interested in any of those people who are part and parcel of the previous [Musharraf] government.”.
The only bright light for Musharraf is that the two main parties did not achieve the two-thirds of the seats required to impeach the president. But they may unite with other smaller opposition parties in an attempt to remove the President. But Musharraf will try to head off any such attempt. The day after the election, Musharraf met with Senators John Kerry and Joe Biden. He told them he was willing to work with the new parliament. The question is whether the new parliament will work with him.
Musharraf Still in Power
But Musharraf still has bargaining chips. He remains in power. Musharaff is still the head of state and the commander in chief of the armed forces. He retains the power to dissolve parliament. He is also still backed by the Bush regime, at least for now. But his power is now checked to some extent. On a day-to-day basis, the new prime minister, who will be chosen by the legislature, runs the government. Whether the president and new prime minister will work together or against each other remains to be seen? Despite the rhetoric of the main opposition leaders, Sharif and Zardari, anything is possible as the various parties and factions struggle for power or to maintain power. Various deals are possible and as is clear already the U.S. government is maneuvering to maintain its influence within the country.
The day after the election State Department spokesman Tom Casey said, “Ultimately President Musharraf is still the president of Pakistan and certainly we would hope that whoever becomes prime minister and whoever winds up in charge of the new government would be able to work with him and with all other factions.” He continued, “We”ve maintained ties to all the parties, both before and during the electoral period and certainly expect to do so afterward as well.” Still another State Department spokesman, Sean McCormack, declared the intention of the U.S. 
government,:”What we will urge is that those moderate forces within Pakistani politics who now have a seat at the table, so to speak, in winning seats in the Parliament, should band together, should work together for a few goals that are in the interest of Pakistan. We are going to continue our work with President Musharraf and whatever that new government may be on goals of our national interest.”
Bush held a press conference while visiting Ghana on Wednesday showing his concern about the situation in Pakistan. He declared, “It’s now time for the newly elected folks to show up and form their government. The question then is, “Will they be friends of the United States?” I certainly hope so.” He praised Musharraf ending emergency rule and holding elections. “There were elections held that have been judged as being fair, and the people have spoken. I view that as a significant victory. I view it as part of the victory on the war on terror.” In November of last year, Bush stated that Musharraf “has done more for Democracy in Pakistan than, than any modern leader has, and one of the reasons you”re seeing the blowback that you”re getting in Pakistan is because of the reforms that, that President Musharraf has put in place.” Bush made this statement shortly after Musharraf had declared a state of emergency, arrested many members of the Supreme Court, curtailed independent media, and arrested thousands of opponents.
Despite it past support for Musharraf, the Bush regime is likely re-thinking its strategy now. While it wishes to maintain him in power, behind the scenes it is likely negotiating with Kayani, Sharif, Zadari, and others to cobble together a government willing to do the bidding of the U.S. If it can do this without sacrificing Musharraf, it will do so. But the U.S. and its interference with the Pakistani government is deeply unpopular in Pakistan among the masses of Pakistani people. Throughout the election campaign the opposition ridiculed Musharraf for being in the pocket of the U.S. government. Pakistani politicians such as Sharif and Zadari are well aware of the dangers in collaborating with the Bush regime. At the same time they also serve the interests of the Pakistani ruling class which has actively worked with various U.S. governments for decades and is dependent on U.S. imperialism to a large degree. The dangers for both these politicians and the Bush regime are very apparent as they struggle to put together a government that “acts” independently of the U.S. while at the same time not interfering with U.S. interests.
White House Warnings
One of these interests is the so-called “war on terrorism.” After the elections, White House spokeswoman Dana M. Perino warned Pakistani leaders that they must remain as allies in the “war on terrorism.” She said, “At the end of the day, we hope that they continue to work with us as partners in counterterrorism. The threat from extremists is just as grave and very immediate for the people of Pakistan.” The Bush regime has repeatedly launched military attacks in Pakistan since 9/11. Numerous missile attacks have been launched from CIA drones. Some of these attacks were assassinations and at least one resulted in large loss of life. The Musharraf government usually denies any knowledge of the origin of the attacks and the U.S. denies that they initiated them. These attacks have mostly focused on the North West Frontier Province (It borders on Afghanistan and is said to be the hiding place of al-Qaeda and Taliban leaders.). During the elections for parliament, both Sharif and Zardari maintained that Pakistan had to combat militant Islamic groups which threaten the security of Pakistan. But they stated that they wanted to make the effort a Pakistani one instead of a campaign run by the United States. They were highly critical of Musharraf for doing the bidding of the U.S., but they also made it clear that they wanted to be partners in the “war on terrorism.”
During the coming days and weeks, the Bush regime will continue to interfere in Pakistan as it has done so for many years. Most of this interference will occur outside public view. It will do its best to create a Pakistani government that serves the interests of U.S. imperialism, rather than the interests of the Pakistani people. It undoubtedly will find willing participants from the Pakistani ruling class. But the Bush regime is far from all-powerful. It is widely despised by the Pakistani people. The elections are seen as a rebuke to Musharraf for his past close association with the U.S. Even those among the Pakistani ruling class who wish to maintain this close association have to be wary that they are not seen as U.S. collaborators.