by Larry Jones
A stated ambition of the Bush Regime in invading and occupying Iraq was that it would become a model of democratic stability for other countries in the region – i.e., it would help pave the way for installing regimes and an overall Pax Americana more favorable to U.S. domination. But in fact conflict and turmoil with many dimensions and in many countries of the region have intensified since the U.S. invasion, and in recent months especially. Political eruptions in or involving Turkey, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, have burst forth, presenting a complex series of challenges to the global ambitions of the imperialists. This situation poses D both dangers for humanity, and possibilities for those of us who want a far better world.
SANCTIONS AGAINST IRAN
Drastic new sanctions against Iran were unilaterally imposed by the U.S. on October. 25 as preparations for a new war were being heightened. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said the sanctions are part of a policy to confront “the threatening behavior of the Iranians.” She claimed Iran turned down an offer for negotiations. What she didn’t say was that the offer was on the condition that Iran first suspend it s nuclear activities, which are not illegal.
The sanctions seek to ruin Iran financially by cutting off numerous Iranian companies and projects controlled by the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), which, at the behest of the president, Congress recently labeled a terrorist organization. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said, “It is increasingly likely that if you are doing business with Iran you are doing business with the IRGC.”
This move is not only a serious threat to Iran’s economy, it also sends a threatening message of sanctions against any of the number of countries doing business with Iran through its military, including Iraq, Russia, China, France and Germany. This is a new form and intensification of U.S. saber rattling.
WORLD WAR III?
In mid-October when President Bush talked about Iran’s nuclear program, he mentioned the possibility of World War III. Even if that was just “rhetorical” as his staff later tried to explain, widening war throughout the world is very much on his mind.
So is starting a war with Iran. In the administration’s new $196 billion “emergency” funding request there is $88 billion to modify stealth bombers to carry a new 30,000-pound bomb. It’s an $88 billion MOP, the Massive Ordnance Penetrator. What would be the target of such an undetectable plane with a bomb that can go deep underground? Well, it could be used on Natanz, Iran’s main nuclear facility, which is deep underground. It just might be that the Pentagon has thought of that.
In addition to an increasing build up of U.S. warships in the Persian Gulf, the U.S. is rapidly building Combat Outpost Shocker in Iraq within five miles of Iran. The U.S. will have 200 troops there, plus U.S. Border Patrol agents to check the hundreds of trucks that cross at that point on a daily basis.
TURKEY, IRAQ, AND THE U.S. – COMPLICATIONS GROW
Turkey is already upset with U.S. politicians” desire to call the 1915 massacre of Armenians “genocide” in what was the Ottoman state and is now Turkey. So the present contention with Iraq’s faltering government over Kurdish attacks from northern Iraq on Turkey is pouring a great deal of salt on an already open wound. Most of the Kurdish rebels are with the Turkish Workers Party or PKK, which over the years has gone through various permutations of Marxism. They hide out both in northern Iraq and within Turkey itself. They have long suffered at the hands of Turkish regimes. Today they claim they are not revolutionaries but seek western style democracy for all, both Turks and Kurds, within Turkey.
On October 21, they mounted an attack in which 12 Turkish soldiers were killed. Outrage by Turkey escalated and they quickly talked of an attack on northern Iraq. Since Turkey is a NATO ally of the U.S., their attacking Iraq in an area over which U.S. has military control would be more than an embarrassment, it would exacerbate the opposition from such states as Syria and elsewhere in a region which are already anti-American. Furthermore, the U.S. feels it must remain close friends with Turkey since all planes and supplies for the war in Iraq are allowed to fly over Turkey.
So Secretary of State Rice called Turkey’s prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and asked that Turkey hold off for a few days. In August Iraqi prime minister Al-Maliki signed a security agreement with Turkey, but the regional Kurdish government repudiated it.
The U.S. has been trying to get the Iraqi government to take the issue seriously. Iraqi president Talabani, himself a Kurd, then called on the PKK to lay down its arms and leave. Few on either side took that very seriously. Turkish -war planes then attacked Kurdish sites inside Iraq but political leaders said they would restrain from more attacks while they await a visit from Rice’s on November 2-3.
ENTER VLADAMIR PUTIN.
The Russian president recently returned from a friendly visit to Iran, where Russia is building Iran’s first nuclear power plant. So it’s no surprise that Putin has opposed any further sanctions against Iran and the new U.S. sanctions of the 25th contain actual threats against Russia, a purported ally. Of late Russia has let the U.S. and the world know that it intends to once again be a powerful nation with a powerful military that can contend with the biggest bully on the block.
But Putin’s Iran trip was mainly to meet with the other Caspian Sea nations: Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, and Iran to discuss how they would share the Caspian Sea and its rich oil fields. But the U.S. has long had its eyes on getting in on the act. Dick Cheney went to Kazakhstan last year and verbally attacked Putin on human and democratic rights. Doing this in Kazakhstan was also an attempt to show that the U.S. had influence in the region where the Bush regime has had a plan to build a pipeline that would bypass Iran and Russia.
A recent comment in the International Herald Tribune stated that the U.S. is supporting a trans-Caspian pipeline “through which Turkmenistan would send natural gas under the Caspian to Azerbaijan and then on to Europe. ” the U.S. would like to weaken Europe’s dependence on Russia, and at the same time isolate Iran.”
The Caspian nations are in contention with each other even though they will meet again next year to continue to work out an agreement. And they are in contention with the U.S., especially Iran and Russia. Putin has said that he would not accept any military action against Iran or any other Caspian nation. An attack on Iran by the U.S. could start the rumbling of a political earthquake with a long fault line.
PALESTINE AND THE OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
It seems that U.S. presidents of late have wanted to end their rule with a new Israeli/Palestine peace deal. Thus president Bush has been sending a very busy Condoleezza Rice to the Mideast to prepare for a high level conference with Israeli and Palestinian officials with hopes that Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia will also attend. The meeting is planned for November or December in Maryland.
The issues will be, as they have been for years, Jerusalem, borders, Israeli settlements in Palestinian territory, Palestinian refugees and the right of return, the WALL. Complicating it all is the fact that the invited Arab states don’t speak at all for the Arab world, being allies of the U.S. Further complicating this particular part of the larger knot is the fact that Hamas rules in Gaza, having won an election that horrified the U.S. And there’s nearby Lebanon where Hezbollah claims to have rockets that can reach any part of Israel.
On top of it all, there was the recently revealed secret attack by Israeli planes on Syria which many believe could have been a dry run for an attack on Iran.
WHAT TO DO?
This whole situation and/or any of its multiple parts may begin to unravel from the perspective of the Bush Regime, but their interests are not the interests of the people, in Central Asia, in the U.S., or anywhere in the world. We need to be busy creating public opinion about what’s really going on as the U.S. increases the drive to expand its empire. We need dramatic actions, including civil disobedience. We need to “orange-ify” as many parts of the nation as we can. We need to use our computers to get the truth out broadly, including things from this WCW web site. We need to arrange exciting forums with good speakers. We all need to come forth with new ideas.
And we all need to be ready and alert as things in the world may literally change over night. The drives of the Bush Regime and the U.S. imperialists generally have tied this world into a knot full of contradictions. We and millions of others can help resolve those contradictions in ways favorable to all humanity.